How unfair inequality is poisoning Britain
By Anita Sangha and Will Snell | With contributions from members of our expert contributors network and other experts
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Unfair inequality harms society like carbon monoxide harms the human body. Inequality damages our economy, our democracy, our social fabric, our public services and our environment. Each of these aspects of society supports the others, and so when one starts to fail, it can have a domino effect - multiple organ failure on a grand scale.
Unfair inequalities across these different areas don’t just reinforce each other; they also undermine the prospects for making progress on policy goals such as reducing NHS waiting lists, boosting growth and breaking down barriers to opportunity. Unfairness creates a vicious cycle because unfair societies are less healthy, productive, efficient, resilient and cohesive.
Britain in 2024 is a society suffering from the carbon monoxide poisoning of unfair inequality - of wealth, income, health and education, and between regions and people of different ethnicities, genders, social classes and disabilities. The canaries in the coal mine are no longer singing. This is a warning sign that, based on our current trajectory, unfair inequality is going to get worse over the next five years, with knock-on impacts on our society, economy and democracy.
Consider some of the statistics. Today, the average person in the South-East of England is £195,400 wealthier than their counterpart in the North of England; this gap is projected to increase to £229,000 by 2029. Today, 30% of children live in relative poverty; this is projected to increase to 33% by 2028, but the SDG target that the government has signed up to is to halve all forms of poverty by 2030. Today, 1.8 million children live in overcrowded housing; this is projected to increase to 2 million children by 2030.
The Health Foundation forecasts that "on current trends, inequalities in health will persist over the next two decades: people in the 10% most deprived areas can expect to be diagnosed with major illness a decade earlier than people in the 10% least deprived areas".
To address this, the next government has to take bold action to reduce economic inequality and build a fairer society. If we don’t make progress on this agenda over the next parliament, the 2029 election result might see the far-right making gains that we have never seen before in this country.
Reducing unfair inequality will not only unlock progress on these policy priorities, but will pay for itself over time. For example, improving housing quality will save the NHS and the social care sector £1.5 billion per year; investing in early years education will generate a 30% return for the Treasury; and every extra pound invested in HMRC enforcement will yield £18 in additional tax revenues.
This report sets out what the evidence tells us about how much more unfair Britain could become over the next five years, why this matters, and what we can do about it. It doesn’t cover every issue and it is impossible to predict the future, but the direction of travel is clear. Urgent action is needed by the next government to turn things around.
INTRODUCTION: UNFAIR INEQUALITY AS POISON
Imagine a miner working a seam in an underground coal mine. Unnoticed, a dangerous amount of carbon monoxide is building up in the mine tunnels. The miner breathes in the poisonous fumes and feels dizzy and nauseous, but carries on working until he passes out. By this point the carbon monoxide has damaged the miner's brain, heart, and other organs by impeding his blood's ability to carry oxygen to body tissues and vital organs. Unless he receives immediate help, one or more of his vital organs might start to fail. These organs support each other, so one failing organ could trigger others to fail in a domino effect, with death the likely outcome.
Now imagine that this person is a representation of Britain today. Each of their organs represents part of our society - our economy, our democracy, our social fabric, our public services and our environment. Over recent decades, we have evolved a form of capitalism that minimises the role of the state in favour of untrammelled free markets, which has led to large increases in inequality.
Inequality formed from different levels of effort can have positive economic impacts, and has some moral justification. However, much of the inequality that we see in Britain today is generated by factors beyond individuals’ control, by inequality of opportunity.
This form of inequality is like carbon monoxide. It damages our economy, our democracy, our social fabric, our public services and our environment. Each of these aspects of society supports the others, and so when one starts to fail, it can trigger failures among the others. A lack of support in one area (e.g. social security or housing) can increase demand for support from other areas (e.g. health or education) just at the point that they are under increased pressure themselves. For example, inadequate social security exacerbates poverty, which undermines education and health outcomes but also increases pressure on the education and health systems: recent JRF research found that 9 in 10 primary school and primary care staff say that pupils or patients experiencing hardship has an impact on them as staff, their colleagues or the wider organisation they work for.
Britain in 2024 is a society suffering from the carbon monoxide poisoning of unfair inequality - of wealth, income, health and education, and between regions and people of different ethnicities, genders, social classes and disabilities. The canaries in the coal mine are no longer singing.
Unfair inequalities across these different areas reinforce each other and undermine the prospects for making progress on policy goals such as reducing NHS waiting lists, boosting growth and breaking down barriers to opportunity. Unfairness creates a vicious cycle because unfair societies are less healthy, productive, efficient, resilient and cohesive.
Consider the issue of wealth inequality. The far higher rates of consumption of a wealthy few contribute far more to carbon emissions than those at the lower end of the wealth distribution. However, the impacts of climate change on people’s lives, from health to educational attainment, are felt most by people with the least wealth, despite their being least responsible and least well-protected. At the same time, those with the least are expected to pay the biggest price for the transition to net zero. As a result, the gap between the rich and the poor will become even wider, and greater economic inequality will fuel higher levels of social inequality, eroding the social fabric of society, undermining people’s trust in democratic politics, and increasing support for populist parties.
Unless the next government drastically changes course, the situation will be even worse in a few years' time, and we could be looking at cascading failures across our economy, society and democracy, to say nothing of the environmental situation, as the country deals with the simultaneous pressures of a widening wealth gap, sluggish growth that continues to mostly benefit the well-off, further pressure on people on low incomes, collapsing public services, and increasing levels of disengagement with democratic politics.
The good news is that, if the next government takes urgent action to build a fairer society, this will unlock progress on those policy goals. Action to build a fairer Britain is popular with the public, and is therefore politically expedient as well as a moral requirement.
And there is no shortage of evidence-based, expert-backed policy solutions to achieve this objective, which will pay for themselves over time. For example, improving housing quality will save the NHS and the social care sector £1.5 billion per year; investing in early years education will generate a 30% return for the Treasury; and every extra pound invested in HMRC enforcement will yield £18 in additional tax revenues.
Fairness is the oxygen that can restore the health of our society, our economy and our democracy, as well as unlocking the rapid action on net zero that we must see in the next five years if we are to avert climate catastrophe.
UNFAIRNESS IN BRITAIN TODAY
We believe that fairness has five components:
The evidence suggests that unfairness matters for five reasons:
The UK in 2024 is demonstrably unfair across a range of areas that are mutually reinforcing:
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2029
Experts predict that the UK will become even more unfair by the end of the next parliament:
Each of these will have negative consequences for key policy priorities:
To turn this around, the next government must take bold steps that will pay for themselves over time:
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