What do people think about the impact of luck on their and other people’s life chances and outcomes? And do they think about luck in its narrower sense (e.g. falling under a bus or winning the lottery), or do they have a broader definition of luck that encompasses factors outside people’s control, such as the circumstances into which someone is born? How do these attitudes vary based on the issues under consideration and based on the characteristics of the respondent?
To find out, we commissioned Opinium to run a nationally representative UK poll of 2,060 adults from 24-26 January 2024, weighted to standard demographic criteria and political criteria.
KEY FINDINGS
KEY STATISTICS
People aged 50-64 are among the most likely to say that they have suffered from bad luck (59%), despite that group having benefited from stable employment and strong economic growth and asset price inflation over their lifetimes. Older people are also the least likely to think that luck has had a positive impact on their lives (6% of over 65s, and 10% of those aged 50-64).
Q1: Thinking about your own circumstances, what impact, if any, have factors beyond your control had on your life? [Percentage who answered negative impact]
People on low incomes (8%) and 2019 Conservative voters (10%) are the next least likely to say they have benefited from good luck (compared to 14% of high earners and 15% of Labour voters).
Q1: Thinking about your own circumstances, what impact, if any, have factors beyond your control had on your life? [Percentage who answered positive impact]
Half of people (53%) think bad luck outweighs good luck in shaping their personal circumstances, while only one in ten (11%) say good luck is more important. More people say that luck has had a small impact on their life (46%) than say it has had a large impact (39%).
Q1: Thinking about your own circumstances, what impact, if any, have factors beyond your control had on your life?
More think that physical health (39%) and educational outcomes (36%) are within people’s control than outside factors, but more think that mental health outcomes are outside people’s control (29%) than within (21%).
Q2: Thinking about society in general, do you think that the following life outcomes are more influenced by factors within people’s control or outside their control?
33% of people in higher-income households think that salary levels are more influenced by factors within people’s control, compared to 20% of people in lower-income households. By contrast, people across the income spectrum believe that levels of wealth accumulation are mostly influenced by factors outside people’s control.
Q2: Thinking about society in general, do you think that the following life outcomes are more influenced by factors within people’s control or outside their control?
People are more likely to associate issues like their own talent (what you are good at) (45%), education (47%), family wealth (30%) and productivity (56%) with merit than with luck.
Q3: Considering the factors below, do you think that they have more to do with luck or merit?
More than twice as many people think we need to do more to reduce the impact of luck on people’s lives (29%) than think that we have gone too far already in doing this (11%).
Q4: When it comes to reducing the impact of luck on individuals' lives, would you say the UK has gone…
