The return of Trump: is inequality behind the rise of the populist president?

Tuesday 4 February 2025, 6.30pm to 7.45pm (UK time) 8th Floor (North Side), Bush House, 30 Aldwych, London WC2B 4BG

President Trump is in power once more. His victory is complete but the business of understanding just what happened has only just begun as we seek lessons – and warnings – for UK politics and this year’s European elections.

Why were the Democrats defeated? Is America’s surging inequality the root cause of President Trump’s victory? What connections can we draw between growing inequality and the populists’ clarion call for a “revolt against elites”?

At this event as part of our Fair Society series, in partnership with the Policy Institute at King’s College London, we convened some of the leading thinkers and analysts who have studied the American campaign up close for a discussion about what is fuelling populist politics in America, what we can learn from what happened – and how the UK government should respond.

Speakers

• Claire Ainsley, Director of the Project on Center-Left Renewal, the Progressive Policy Institute and former Executive Director for Policy for Sir Keir Starmer
• Professor Ben Ansell, Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions, Nuffield College Oxford and author of Why Politics Fails 
• The Rt Hon Liam Byrne MP, Member of Parliament for Birmingham Hodge Hill and author of The Inequality of Wealth 
• Peter Hyman, Former Senior Advisor to Sir Keir Starmer
• Hamida Ali, Head of Policy and Programmes, Future Governance Forum
• Professor Bobby Duffy, Director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London (chair)

EVENT SUMMARY

Liam Byrne opened the discussion by highlighting that Reform had overtaken Labour in the polls for the first time that day. He emphasised the widespread pessimism about the future, referencing Ipsos’s 'broken system' index across the US, UK, and France, which showed a significant lack of faith in politicians' ability to fix problems. He stressed the need for an economic offer that addresses both income and wealth, questioning whether the current state infrastructure was capable of delivering such change, and talked about the importance of developing a convincing narrative about national rejuvenation.

Claire Ainsley highlighted that populism is increasingly driven from the bottom up rather than top down, with majorities feeling their countries are heading in the wrong direction. The surge in right-wing support stems from a combination of economic, cultural, and social insecurity, beginning in industrial heartlands but spreading to create a broader sense of decline among the middle class. She noted that in the US, Democrats are losing both ethnic minority and white voters, with 70% of undecided voters believing the country is going in the wrong direction.

Ben Ansell discussed recent data showing growing wealth concentration among America's ultra-wealthy, with the top 17 richest Americans now owning about 2% of US wealth, up from 1% a decade ago, primarily due to quasi-monopolistic tech companies. Support for Trump in 2016 correlated with areas experiencing stagnant or declining house prices, while Clinton voters typically came from areas with rising property values. This suggests that Trump's base isn't necessarily the most destitute, but rather those who feel left behind and resentful. His first-term policies benefited the wealthy but also small business owners, and mostly harmed the upper-middle classes, punishing progressive voters in blue states.

Hamida Ali discussed the fragility of Labour's position, emphasising the need for a different approach to governing and rebuilding public services. She warned against accepting outdated populist arguments that frame politics as a zero-sum game, particularly around jobs and housing, and stressed the importance of making a positive case for equality rather than allowing it to become an increasingly contested concept.

Peter Hyman identified seven "deadly sins" of centrists and progressives that he believes have created space for Trump's success: being patronising, complacent, abstract, censorious, gullible, conservative, and bland. He emphasised the need for a new economic model that addresses stagnant wages and inequality, a reformed model of government that works more effectively, and a compelling national story that embraces patriotism without squeamishness.

The speakers agreed that Democrats and Labour face similar challenges in needing to reconnect with working-class voters while maintaining their progressive values. Claire Ainsley noted that the Democrats are increasingly seen as culturally elite and judgmental, while Trump is perceived as standing up for people's interests, despite his wealth. There's a growing disconnect between college-educated and non-college-educated voters, creating what Michael Sandel describes as an inequality of status that goes beyond mere wealth differences.

The discussion highlighted the importance of developing credible alternatives to the status quo. Centre-left parties need to address both economic concerns and cultural anxieties, while avoiding the trap of being seen as representing only metropolitan elites or special interest groups. The speakers emphasised that people don't just want redistribution; they want power, agency, and a government that works for ordinary people.

On solutions, the panel suggested several approaches. Liam Byrne spoke about the need to democratise progress and enlarge rights to homes, work, food, nature, and mobility, arguing that freedom requires both security and wealth. There was agreement that Labour needs to demonstrate leadership and desire for change through strategic "fights" that resonate with voters, while better communicating the reasoning behind their policies.

The discussion touched on the delicate balance needed when addressing diversity and equality issues. While acknowledging genuine concerns, speakers cautioned against allowing right-wing forces to trivialise or distort the issues. Hamida Ali cited Wes Streeting's approach of rejecting oppositional framing and instead focusing on universal values, such as tackling health inequalities.

A key conclusion was the need for centre-left parties to develop a compelling narrative that combines economic reform with cultural understanding. This narrative must address both material concerns about inequality and deeper anxieties about status and identity, while avoiding the patronising tone that has alienated many voters. The speakers agreed that success requires not just policy solutions but also a fundamental change in how progressive politicians communicate and connect with voters who feel left behind by globalisation and rapid social change.